Archive for the qum Category

SHEEHAN: What Is “Regime Change From Within?” Unpacking the Concept in the Context of Iran | Digest of Middle East Studies | Oct 14

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SHEEHAN: What Is “Regime Change From Within?” Unpacking the Concept in the Context of Iran | Digest of Middle East Studies | Fall 2014 | Vol. 23, Issue 2

Digest of Middle East Studies (DOMES); Copyright © Wiley / Policy Studies Organization; Fall 2014; Vol. 23, Issue 2; Pgs. 385-403

Dr. Ivan Sascha Sheehan is published in the fall 2014 issue of the Digest of Middle East Studies, a peer-reviewed journal published by Wiley-Blackwell on behalf of the Policy Studies Organization. Dr. Sheehan’s latest study — What Is “Regime Change From Within?” Unpacking the Concept in the Context of Iran — clarifies the contested concept of regime change from within via Tehran’s organized opposition and makes contributions to the concept’s formation to increase its policy relevance and classificatory significance.

Abstract: The use of the phrase “regime change from within” has surged in recent years in media, policy, and opposition discourse, especially in relation to the Islamic Republic of Iran. But what does “regime change from within” actually mean? Is it just a script to encourage the aspirations of a people, or can it be defined with more specificity? This article argues that to be of value as a concept and the basis for articulate policy, “regime change from within” needs to be better defined. To bring greater clarity to the term, the article tries to unpack the concept by disaggregating it into three analytically separable problem components: the “regime,” “change,” and “from within.” Drawing on the case of Iran, I argue that although most of the current debate around the concept is on the “from within” component, the definitional choices that need more discussion are the “regime” and “change” aspects of the phrase.

Excerpt | What Is “Regime Change From Within?” Unpacking the Concept in the Context of Iran | Digest of Middle East Studies | F.14 | Vol. 23, Issue 2 –

[The concept of] ‘regime change from within’ has been employed for an array of very disparate processes — as a holder for democracy promotion efforts from outside a country as well as indigenous efforts that exclude outside intervention, to highlight the need for radical change and more vaguely to call for continuous reform. But to be of value as a concept and the basis for articulate policy, a term needs to have some degree of specificity of meaning, some shared consensus. Otherwise, it just becomes a proverbial “you know it when you see it” concept that is difficult to distinguish from other types of political phenomena.

To address this gap and bring greater clarity to the concept, this article looks at some of the definitional choices that need to be addressed to come to a consensus on the meaning of “regime change from within.” Using the case of the Islamic Republic of Iran, I show how different decisions about what constitutes “regime change from within” could lead to very different conceptualizations in empirical cases…

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SHEEHAN: Iran is the Real Middle East Threat | The Hill | Commentary

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Press Release -- International Affairs Professor: U.S. Must Keep an Eye on Iran

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SHEEHAN: Iran is the Real Middle East Threat | The Hill | Commentary

While presenting at the World Congress of Middle East Studies in Turkey on August 19, Dr. Ivan Sascha Sheehan published an article in the congressional newspaper The Hill on Iraq, Iran, ISIS and the growing unrest on the Iraqi street. In the article, he questioned whether White House officials have a plan to counter the larger threat posed by the Islamic Republic of Iran.

“…U.S. policy on Iran must ensure significant consequence for continued Iranian interference in Iraq. The failure to act against Assad by enforcing the red line in Syria or push back on Putin’s adventures in Ukraine diminished U.S. credibility and squandered valuable influence. But Congress can correct these missteps by insisting that the White House lean in on Iran by giving the ayatollahs a new problem to keep them busy.

Since Tehran fears internal threats more than external ones, U.S. legislators should embrace a policy of regime change from within via Iran’s organized opposition.

Obama’s declaration that there is no military solution to Iraq’s troubles and that a legitimate Iraqi government must be established is an accurate diagnosis insofar as it goes. But the intoxication resulting from a combination of U.S. impotence, Iranian interference, and Iraqi frustration will only lead to continued regional instability.

Solving the Iraq puzzle requires that U.S. officials double down on the real threat in the Middle East and increase the prospect of collapse in Tehran.” #PDF

You can learn more about Dr. Sheehan’s recent media appearances in a University of Baltimore press release.

Please also stay tuned for forthcoming publications in fall 2014 on topics related to regime change in Iran and suicide terrorism.

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Sheehan Interviewed on Bloomberg Television

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WATCH @Islamic State vs. Iran: Which Threat Is Bigger? / Bloomberg TV / August 13, 2014

University of Baltimore Professor Ivan Sascha Sheehan and the Heritage Foundation’s Steven Bucci discuss the threat posed by Islamic State in Iraq and Iran’s influence in the country live on Bloomberg Television on August 13, 2014.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s departure is a very positive development for Iraq and represents an opportunity for the creation of a more inclusive, truly representative government in Baghdad.

–Dr. Ivan Sascha Sheehan

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Sheehan Interviewed on Iranian Nuclear Crisis

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Dr. Ivan Sascha Sheehan was recently interviewed by the University of Baltimore Magazine on the Iranian nuclear situation and a monograph authored with Ambassador Lincoln P. Bloomfield, Jr. titled The Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK) – Shackled by a Twisted History. Several thousand copies of the monograph were provided to members of Congress, White House officials, and the Intelligence Community.

You can read Dr. Sheehan’s Foreword here.

The monograph received endorsements from senior former US officials, including:

  • General George W. Casey, Jr.
  • Lieutenant General Dell L. Dailey
  • General James L. Jones
  • Judge Michael B. Mukasey
  • Dr. Mitchell B. Reiss
  • Governor Bill Richardson

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Sheehan Presenting at 2014 World Congress of Middle Eastern Studies

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2014 World Congress of Middle East Studies / Strategies for Change in the Middle East: Clarifying the Contested Concept of Regime Change from Within / Panel on Democracy and Reform in Iran from a Historical Perspective / August 18-22, 2014 / Middle East Technical University (METU)

Dr. Ivan Sascha Sheehan has been invited to Ankara, Turkey to present at the 2014 World Congress of Middle East Studies (WOCMES) between August 18-22, 2014. The symposium will be held at Middle East Technical University (METU), one of Turkey’s leading universities. Dr. Sheehan is scheduled to present a paper titled Strategies for Change in the Middle East: Clarifying the Contested Concept of Regime Change from Within.

Presentation Abstract: The term “regime change from within” has become increasingly popular in opposition and policy discourse, especially in relation to the Islamic Republic of Iran. It has also begun entering the academic literature. But what does it mean? Despite its increasing use “regime change from within” is rarely defined and scant scholarly attention to date has been paid to defining it. This is problematic since, as an “umbrella concept,” the term can be stretched to include a wide variety of discrepant processes. In fact, “regime change from within” has been used as a holder for democracy promotion efforts within a country that start both inside and outside a country, as well as indigenous efforts that exclude outside support, to highlight the need for radical change, and more vaguely to call for “continuous” change or reform. This paper argues that coherent strategic policy demands better articulation of the meaning of the term. As a first step, the paper traces the evolution of use of the term “regime change from within,” tries to unpack its components, and develops a preliminary framework that partitions the concept into ends (vision) and means (strategy) to assess its utility for policy.

Stay tuned for two forthcoming articles by Dr. Sheehan:

SHEEHAN: What is “Regime Change from Within?” Unpacking the Concept in the Context of Iran | Digest of Middle East Studies | Fall 2014

SHEEHAN: Balancing Ends, Ways, and Means: The Case for Reviving Support for “Regime Change from Within” in Iran | Under Review

More on Dr. Sheehan’s research can be found at the below links.

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Sheehan Invited to Paris to Participate in 2014 Conference for Democratic Change in Iran

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Dr. Ivan Sascha Sheehan has been invited to Paris as a guest of the Organizing Committee for the Convention of Democracy in Iran to serve as an Academic Observer at the largest gathering of the democratic Iranian opposition in exile on June 27, 2014. The event will feature remarks by leaders from more than fifty countries, a bipartisan delegation of U.S. policymakers, and distinguished academics from around the world. Democracy, human rights, the rule of law, and the deteriorating situation in neighboring Iraq will be discussed.

Sheehan’s early work involved quantitative analyses of terrorism incident data and examined the impact of preemptive force on terrorist activity. Since this time, he has published on topics related to evidence-based counterterrorism policy, terrorism courses, terror tagging, counterinsurgency, suicide terrorism, and regime change from within. His latest work has involved both peer-reviewed scholarship and policy-oriented writing on the Islamic Republic of Iran, frequently cited as the most significant state-sponsor of contemporary terrorism, and their democratic political opposition.

On June 7, 2014, Dr. Ivan Sascha Sheehan  was invited to sign a letter to U.S. President Barack Obama along with 37 distinguished former U.S. officials, senior military leaders, and prominent academics. The letter condemns the ongoing mistreatment of Iranian dissidents detained at Camp Liberty in Iraq, outlines the gross injustices faced by the residents, and calls on Mr. Obama to do more to ensure the prompt and safe resettlement of the Iranian exiles before any additional lives are lost.

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Sheehan Joins Distinguished Signatories in Letter to President Obama Condemning Treatment of Iranian Dissidents

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On June 7, 2014, Dr. Ivan Sascha Sheehan  was invited to sign a letter to U.S. President Barack Obama along with 37 distinguished former U.S. officials, senior military leaders, and prominent academics. The letter condemns the ongoing mistreatment of Iranian dissidents detained at Camp Liberty in Iraq, outlines the gross injustices faced by the residents, and calls on Mr. Obama to do more to ensure the prompt and safe resettlement of the Iranian exiles before any additional lives are lost. #PDF

“… After Iraq assumed responsibility from the U.S. for the security of the exiles at the end of 2008, Iraqi military forces entered Camp Ashraf in July 2009 and April 2011 and attacked the defenseless residents with military-grade weaponry, killing and wounding many. Further lethal rocket and mortar attacks were staged against the residents following their 2011 relocation to Camp Liberty, with the attackers firing from within the Iraqi security perimeter and publicly claiming support from Iran. The deadly operation on September 1, 2013, where a group of MeK persons authorized to remain in Camp Ashraf and oversee disposition of the exiles’ property were systematically attacked, should have prompted an emergency reassessment of the U.S. approach to this problem.

Fifty-two exiles were murdered, many after being immobilized with plastic handcuffs and shot in the head with weapons using silencers. Seven men and women were abducted and remain missing, with the obvious concern that they may have been transferred to the hands of the Iranian government, where they would face virtually certain torture and execution. Cell phone videos and photographs of the unfolding attack on September 1 leave no doubt that uniformed members of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki’s “Golden Division” were the perpetrators, employing target acquisition skills and methods directly reflecting prior training by U.S. special operations forces…”

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Sheehan Policy Recommendations Featured on Iranian Television

Posted in analysis, arak, ashraf, assad, baghdad, ballistic missiles, brussels, chemical weapons, CIA, clinton, congress, counterterrorism, covert, crimes against humanity, delisting, democracy, diplomacy, dissident, european union, farsi, fordow, foreign policy, foreign policy analysis, freedom, geneva, global, hostages, human rights, human security, IAEA, intelligence, international security studies, iran, iraq, israel, kerry, maliki, media, MEK, MI6, middle east, military, mossad, natanz, NCRI, negotiation, netanyahu, nuclear, obama, P5+1, paris, peace, PMOI, policy, preemptive, protest, qum, rajavi, regime change, sanctions, security studies, senate, senate foreign relations committee, sheehan, state department, strike, syria, tehran, terrorism, the hill, threat, u.s. foundation for liberty, unrest, war, weapons, white house, zakaria, zarif on February 25, 2014 by Professor Sheehan

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The segment featuring Dr. Ivan Sascha Sheehan begins at 00.45

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UPDATE: 2/25 – See Farsi Translation

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SHEEHAN: Face the Facts on Iran Agreement | The Hill | Commentary

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SHEEHAN: Face the Facts on Iran Agreement | The Hill | Commentary

As world powers gather in Vienna to discuss a comprehensive agreement to curtail Tehran’s nuclear program, Dr. Ivan Sascha Sheehan is published in the The Hill on what Congress can do to correct White House missteps on Iran policy.

As the White House rolls the dice on a permanent pact and embraces the failed strategy of appeasement, Congress should place a check on the administration’s unwillingness to face the facts.

A nuclear compromise with Tehran will surrender the peace, not secure it. #PDF

UPDATE: 2/25 – This article was translated into Farsi and reprinted for a global audience. The policy recommendations were also featured Iranian National Television. Details soon.

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SHEEHAN: Facing the Facts on the Iran Agreement | Townhall.com | Commentary

Posted in analysis, arak, ashraf, assad, baghdad, ballistic missiles, bipartisan, chemical weapons, CIA, congress, counterterrorism, covert, crimes against humanity, delisting, democracy, diplomacy, dissident, european union, fordow, foreign policy, foreign policy analysis, freedom, geneva, gingrich, global, hostages, human rights, human security, IAEA, intelligence, international relations, international security studies, iran, iraq, israel, kerry, maliki, media, MEK, MI6, middle east, military, mossad, murder, natanz, NCRI, negotiation, netanyahu, nuclear, obama, P5+1, paris, peace, PMOI, policy, politics, protest, qum, rajavi, regime change, republican, sanctions, security studies, senate, senate foreign relations committee, sheehan, soldier, state department, strike, syria, tehran, terrorism, threat, u.s. foundation for liberty, unrest, war, weapons, white house, zarif on February 11, 2014 by Professor Sheehan

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SHEEHAN: Facing the Facts on the Iran Agreement | Townhall.com | Commentary

Dr. Ivan Sascha Sheehan is published at Townhall.com on February 11 on why Congress must pass the Nuclear Weapons Free Iran Act as well as protect the intelligence capabilities of the Iranian opposition detained in Iraq.

The U.S. policy of engagement with the Iranian regime at the expense of concerns raised by key allies – including Israel and Saudi Arabia – has chilled U.S. relations with global partners and strengthened Tehran’s hand in ongoing discussions with the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council and Germany.

Iranian interpretations of the interim agreement have somehow preserved the domestic perks of the arrangement – including access to currency and the lifting of sanctions – while necessitating few of the actual obligations that would serve regional security interests.

Update: 2/26 – Syndicated in the Augusta Free Press

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Dr. Ivan Sascha Sheehan Interviewed on Fox 45

Posted in analysis, arak, ballistic missiles, CIA, college of public affairs, congress, counterterrorism, covert, deterrence, diplomacy, fordow, foreign policy, foreign policy analysis, Fox, freedom, geneva, global, IAEA, intelligence, international relations, international security studies, interview, iran, israel, jerusalem post, media, middle east, military, mossad, natanz, negotiation, netanyahu, nuclear, obama, P5+1, paris, policy, politics, preemptive, qum, regime change, sanctions, security studies, senate, senate foreign relations committee, sheehan, state department, strike, tehran, terrorism, threat, u.s. foundation for liberty, university of baltimore, war, warships, weapons, white house on February 11, 2014 by Professor Sheehan

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On February 10, Dr. Ivan Sascha Sheehan was interviewed on Baltimore’s FOX 45 on the threat posed by Iranian warships dispatched to the Atlantic Ocean just one week before P5+1 nuclear negotiations are set to resume in Vienna. You can view the segment at:

FOX Baltimore: Iran Says Warships Headed Close to US Borders

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SHEEHAN: Stiffen the Penalties on Iranian Non-Compliance | The Hill | Commentary

Posted in analysis, arak, ashraf, assad, baghdad, bipartisan, chemical weapons, CIA, clinton, congress, counterterrorism, covert, crimes against humanity, delisting, democracy, diplomacy, dissident, european union, fordow, foreign policy, foreign policy analysis, framing, freedom, geneva, gingrich, global, hostages, human rights, human security, IAEA, intelligence, international relations, international security studies, iran, iraq, israel, kerry, maliki, media, MEK, MI6, middle east, military, mossad, murder, natanz, NCRI, negotiation, netanyahu, nuclear, obama, P5+1, paris, peace, PMOI, policy, politics, protest, qum, rajavi, regime change, sanctions, senate, senate foreign relations committee, sheehan, state department, syria, tehran, terrorism, the hill, threat, u.s. foundation for liberty, unrest, war, weapons, white house, zarif on January 20, 2014 by Professor Sheehan

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SHEEHAN: Stiffen the Penalties on Iranian Non-Compliance | The Hill | Commentary

Dr. Ivan Sascha Sheehan is published in the congressional newspaper The Hill on January 20 on the merits of the U.S. Senate enacting bipartisan legislation to address shortcomings in White House Iran policy.

The president’s first-term foreign policy pragmatism has regrettably given way to a global passivity that has increased instability in the Middle East.

Syria and Iraq are ablaze with bloody civil wars, Tehran is facilitating al Qaeda in Iraq’s foothold, and Shiite domination of political rivals has gone unchallenged.

Obama’s rhetorical goal of peacefully terminating Iran’s nuclear weapons program is admirable but negotiations without mechanisms to ensure verification are a fool’s endeavor and bargaining without extracting meaningful concessions is a rookie mistake.

Ivan Sascha Sheehan, Ph.D.

The writer is director of the Negotiations and Conflict Management and Global Affairs and Human Security graduate programs in the College of Public Affairs at the University of Baltimore. #Image1 / #Image2 / #Image3

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Clinton’s Diplomatic Missile Launched at Tehran – The Jerusalem Post

Posted in analysis, CIA, clinton, counterterrorism, covert, delisting, democracy, deterrence, diplomacy, dissident, fordow, foreign policy, intelligence, iran, iran policy committee, israel, MEK, military, mousavi, natanz, NCRI, negotiation, nuclear, obama, PMOI, policy, preemptive, qum, rajavi, regime change, state department, strike, tanter, terrorism, threat, war on October 4, 2012 by Professor Sheehan

Raymond Tanter and Ivan Sascha SheehanTANTER & SHEEHAN: Clinton’s Diplomatic Missile Launched at Tehran – The Jerusalem Post – Opinion

Professors Raymond Tanter and Ivan Sascha Sheehan in The Jerusalem Post on Secretary Clinton’s diplomatic bombshell ricocheting through Iran.

Print Edition: The Jerusalem Post Op-Ed Page – September 3, 2012